Break-Even ROAS Calculator for COD & Returns

Use this free break-even ROAS calculator to estimate advertising profit after failed deliveries, returns, packing and fees. Compare ROAS before and after returns, find three delivery-rate break-even points, and test your own delivery ratio and ROAS. No signup is needed.

How to use the COD ROAS calculator

Start with one consistent order cohort. Enter dispatched orders, average order value, product cost and the percentage successfully delivered. For example, 70 delivered parcels out of 100 dispatched parcels is a 70% delivery ratio. Exclude cancelled orders that never shipped. Use the same cohort when estimating advertising cost.

Enter your costs separately. Delivery charges apply only to delivered orders the customer keeps. Returned orders incur the return-charge field instead of both courier fields. Packing applies to every dispatched order. Enter your total courier cost per returned parcel in the return field; include any outbound leg there if your courier charges it.

Calculate current CPA. Divide advertising spend by dispatched orders, including failed deliveries. If you spent AED 5,000 to generate the 100 dispatched orders in this cohort, enter AED 50 CPA. The calculator then displays total profit, profit margin and both ROAS figures.

Try a different outcome. Under the current results, enter an estimated delivery ratio and ROAS. Select whether that ROAS uses order value before returns or revenue kept afterward. The tool derives advertising spend from your chosen basis and shows projected profit in money and as a percentage of revenue kept. Download the CSV report or choose Print / save PDF.

ROAS before returns vs ROAS after returns

ROAS before returns is the value of all dispatched orders divided by advertising spend. ROAS after returns is the revenue kept from delivered, non-refunded orders divided by the same spend. A high before-return ROAS can still produce a loss when too many parcels return or product and operating costs are high.

Use the revenue definition that matches your advertising report. This calculator does not connect to Google Ads, Meta, ChatGPT Ads or an accounting system. Google describes the role of conversion values in its official conversion value documentation; the value you measure determines what a ROAS number represents.

Illustrative example: 70% delivery does not guarantee profit

With 100 dispatched orders, AED 250 order value, AED 100 product cost, 70% delivery, AED 20 delivery charge, AED 10 return charge, a 3% fee and no separate packing cost, revenue kept is AED 17,500. Assume no post-delivery refunds and fully reusable returned stock.

At AED 50 CPA, advertising costs AED 5,000 and modeled profit is AED 3,275, or 18.71% of revenue kept. ROAS is 5.00× before returns and 3.50× afterward. Break-even is approximately 3.02× before returns or 2.11× afterward. The displayed break-even ROAS is rounded; exact zero profit uses the unrounded value.

In the same example, a 2.50× ROAS before returns implies AED 10,000 in advertising spend. That produces a modeled loss of AED 1,725, or −9.86% of revenue kept. A 2.50× ROAS measured after returns implies different advertising spend and gives a different profit. These are illustrative calculations, not results from an advertising test.

Calculation method and assumptions

Revenue kept = dispatched orders × order value × delivery ratio × (1 − post-delivery refund rate). Product cost is reduced by recovered stock value on returned orders. Fees apply to delivered order value, with an option to return the percentage fee on post-delivery refunds; fixed fees apply to every dispatched order.

Profit = revenue kept − product cost after recovery − delivery charges on kept orders − return charges on returned orders − packing on all dispatched orders − fees − advertising spend. Profit margin = profit ÷ revenue kept × 100. Break-even ROAS = the relevant revenue basis ÷ the amount available for advertising before profit reaches zero.

This model treats post-delivery refunds as full refunds with returned stock. Use the stock-recovery field to account for damaged or unrecoverable goods. Enter costs and selling prices consistently. Currency selection changes labels only; it does not convert exchange rates. Tax, fixed overheads and costs not entered are excluded. A percentage margin is undefined when no revenue is kept.

Frequently asked questions

What is break-even ROAS? It is the ROAS at which the revenue kept covers the modeled product, courier, packing, fee and advertising costs, leaving zero profit. There is no single break-even ROAS that suits every store.

Why are there three break-even points? The table compares three delivery ratios around your current ratio while keeping your entered costs the same. Each row shows the before-return and after-return ROAS needed for zero modeled profit at that delivery ratio.

Are returned orders charged delivery and return fees together? No. This tool uses delivery charges for kept orders and return charges for returned orders. Packing still applies to both. Put the complete courier charge for a returned parcel in the return field.

Can I save or share the calculation? Yes. Download a CSV report with inputs, current results, the what-if scenario, break-even points and assumptions. Print / save PDF opens your browser’s print dialog. The calculator performs its calculations locally in your browser and does not send the entered figures to a Seolign calculation server.

Does this work for COD stores in Pakistan and the UAE? You can select PKR or AED, alongside other listed currencies. Enter your own courier and fee arrangements. The calculator does not apply country-specific taxes or automatically import marketplace fee schedules.

More help with advertising and measurement

Use the Seolign marketing guides to improve campaign measurement and reporting, or return to all free tools. For help reviewing an advertising measurement setup, contact Seolign.